Sunday, January 30, 2011

SPX Read going forward - January 30, 2011










This has been what I believe to be one of the most vicious bull traps in a while. At DTBC we have been well prepared and ready for this by being in a heavy cash position. On Fryday we had the Egypt news etc. Which I believed something of the sort was on the way, and the market would not handle it well. Along with some weak econmic reports, and most companys getting drilled on earnings. As I am writing this around 7pm EST, the ES is down about 8 points, which is pretty big. I believe we are still in a topping process which started when 1274 was first touched, and this will be the first time in a long time that the dip buyers will be tested, see there has not been a dip in a long time, yet all I hear past month or so, is that the dips are being bought, HUH? What dip? This market can still pop a new 52 week high, although I dont think we will. Patience is key up here. I do not expect to close over 1274 this month. Check out my monthly SPX chart and "1274" is no joke. We have a gap on the SPX to fill at 1257 with the 1260-1263 area acting as support. I will be looking for gap-down support plays for the early part of this week. 126.00 is support on the SPY. Swinging for the short term future is going to be tough long or short. Chop-fest coming. The VIX put in the biggest candle since May on Fryday. Potential target's and % moves. A 5% correction = 1231 failing right near my major support of 1235 and the 50% fib retracement since the last correction, 6% would be 1219 which was April's high's and the 38% fib retracement. 7% to me is the sweet-spot, putting us at 1206, which is another one of my major support areas. A full 10% would be 1167, again near major support of 1161. The dollar is extremely oversold here, and I am looking for a run in it. Which would put pressure on the market. So in a nutshell, lets chill this week and be ready to pounce!!

3 comments:

  1. Wow! Great work GTO! I think I will be watching early part of the week, not much jumping out at me and no need to get involved. Nice site.

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