Gtotoy

title

2011-11-28T22:27:00.001-08:00

content

title

2011-11-28T21:54:00.001-08:00

content

$SPY Read for the Day, March 30, 2011

2011-03-30T05:46:00.001-07:00

“We continue your regularly scheduled BULL MARKET..we apologize for the interruption”

My oh my, We are walking into a HUGE gap-up today. The ES hit as high as 1324.50 for a cool +8. <–Ka-Pow!

Coming into the week I wanted to see some digestion for the run to 1338 by Fryday, so far so good. Monday and Tuesday we saw the needed digestion, and a lot of constructive activity under the surface. Now when we see 1338 I will re asses the situation. At this point I just cant see us blowing through it like it was not there. It is the single biggest area of resistance on the SPX. But that is still about 10 points or so overhead. One day at a time. When we do break it, strap in, we will rocket higher. Depending on how we get there.

The NYMO is a very important tool in my box, and it is at +25.34 coming into today, we are no where near overbought. The way we have recovered 70+ points off the 1249 lows has been very constructive, we have paused when we needed to and lifted when we needed to.

This recent run has been a blast to trade, after finally correcting 7%. My own trading has been a fun ride, just ripping points out of all kinds of stocks. But do not forget where we are. We are just under that brick wall of 1338. This is a “toppy” area. I love trading after dips/corrections. This one is not done by any means. Just keep heavy cash. I haven’t deployed more than 50% of my account in several month’s. Call it what ya want. I call it disciplined trading. You don’t have to try and be a rock-star every day or month for that matter.

Copper is a MAJOR market tell. I watch it like a hawk. We have lost the all important 436 level on a closing basis. Copper usually leads the overall market by 2-3 days. It is recovering though, It has tagged 438 in the overnight session. I think copper just took a break. It is ready to run again.

The SPY has hit as high as 132.86 this morning, a full one point higher than the close yesterday, and by breaking 132.75 we are pushing into the “Vacuum”, take a look at my SPY Weekly chart. Since the cup was put in back in the summer, the measured move was 135-140. We saw a high of 134.11. Plenty of room to go people.

To dial it in for the day I use my SPY 60 minute chart. First support under us is the gap fill at 131.86 and then my MAJOR support of 131.42. That should hold today. Worst case scenario is the 50% fib at 130.53. Cant see that even getting close today. Upside target is the gap which starts at 133.04 and fills at 133.95. Then we have 52 week highs at 134.11.

Important to note that no matter where we are or what the market is doing, you have to be careful to not chase on gap up’s like this and ALWAYS sell some into it. You don’t see a hungry rat in a cheese shop do you?
Baa!

Swings L: $ANF 56.35 $ATPG 9.90/11.17 $FSLR 155.98 $JBHT 43.58 $OXY 101.14 $SSO 51.90 $X 55.15 $ISRG May 350 calls 10.60 $GS 160 weekly calls @ 1.17

Trade Setups for March 9, 2011

2011-03-09T05:28:00.001-08:00

SPX Read For The Week- February 22, 2011 It’s Shake N’ Bake Time!

2011-02-21T22:44:00.001-08:00

As I am sitting here preparing for the upcoming week, the futures are down huge. The ES is down -17. Dow futures are down -102. Just as I expected and talked about on Fryday, that more than likely a 100 point gap-down was coming. Just felt that being long up here was just plain and simple a sign of bad discipline. Tensions in the middle east right now have this market spooked at the moment. We were able to shake off the Egypt news to my amazement. This will be a big test now. Gold, Silver, and Oil are off to the races tonight. Oil at one point was up +10 WOW. It closed at 88.80 last week, and tagged 98.48 tonight, be careful not to chase any oil names early.
I am 90% in cash right now in the trading accounts, and feel great about. The way I have for the most part played the greatest bull market in history since March 2009, has been to not really short the tops, but rather sit in a large cash position and wait. Wait for what ya might be asking. Well it's a pretty simple answer, "SUPPORT". As my charts clearly show 1338 is a tough nut, yes we cracked it ever so slightly. In my opinion we will lose 1338 as a monthly close.
The SPX is in a rising wedge on all time frames. Only a matter of time before it cracks. Now for short term support areas, 1325 and 1310, there is a gap to fill at 1310.87. Losing 1310 will have us falling out of the wedge. Just a simple 5% pull-back/correction would bring us to my long term support area of 1274, which I would consider to be a gift. I believe any dip/pullback will not be in a straight line. This market is just too strong for that. I am prepared for the volatility to crank it up a bit. Which I welcome with open arms.
One of my major tools that I use is COPPER. Its an excellent way to read the market, It usually makes it move before the SPX. August being a case in point. The low was 320.00. When the SPX in August bottomed at 1039 Copper was already ripping some 20+ points. Then subsequently ripped to new all time highs of 465 where it printed a bearish engulfing candle . For the past 2-3 weeks, it has been looking more and more like a topping pattern to me. 436 is key here. We lose it? Well I believe more pain in store for the SPX.
The dollar also found support on Fryday @ 77.52. It has already tagged 78.25 here on Sunday evening. The weekly trend-line under it has been tested, and has held up so far.
There are so many divergences in the market right now, The NYMO being one of them. This recent move in the SPX from 1274-1344 has not felt right, un-healthy would be a great way of putting it. I for one always "Mind the McClellan". I find it to be utterly ridiculous that the SPX moved from 1173 back in November to 1344, and the highest reading the NYMO could register has been +34. Not normal to say the least. Lets do our best to stay on the right side of the market this week. No reason to be too aggressive one way or another. Expect some "Shake ~N~ Bake"

All charts can be found by clicking charts: Charts

Trade setup in GS for February 16, 2011

2011-02-15T21:13:00.000-08:00

I'm long here from 168.25, looking to add over 168.72 maybe. I like the chart here. Looks due for a big day. Can see 172 trend-line touch.

SPX Read going forward - February 13, 2011

2011-02-13T15:06:00.000-08:00

We got our dip alrighty. Two Fryday's ago, A one day dip was about all the market could muster. The rebound from the Egypt sell-off news has been impressive. Up until we broke 1310 and held it for a week, I was still thinking topping pattern. That has pretty much been violated. The 10 day EMA has been consistent support. Buying any dip no matter how slight off this area has been rewarding. Since we hit 1274 I became very cautious on the longs as well as the shorts using small size, looking for the elusive dip, which never really came. Resistance has been like butter in this push though 1235 due in part to the "Vacuum". As you can see on my charts of the weekly and more importantly my monthly, the vacuum which was turned on at 1121, still has way more to go. Long term resistance is 1338 and if we break it, we should get "sucked" higher FAST. The monthly chart continues to point to a multi-year bull run, but keep time frame in mind. My next overhead resistance numbers are 1370,1404, then 1432. First "real" support under us is at 1274, and then 1235. The market can always go way higher and also way lower than one would normally expect. Just like this run from 1039 this past august, as well as the one from 666 in 2009. Both the daily and the weekly charts have embedded stochastics, which one should never short. Even the volume has been good as of late. I will continue with caution and the same smaller size etc for now. It is also options expiration week as well. Going into last Thursday I felt as though we would see the low through the following week, still feel the same. That low was 1311. We just might see 1370 by Fryday. Good luck out there this week.

SPY Read for the Day - February 11, 2011

2011-02-11T05:55:00.000-08:00

The overnight session was pretty weak last night, at one point the ES was down -9. DOW futures -63 or so. Recovering somewhat here, if they hold it will be 3 days in a row the market opened weak. How many times will the bulls paint the tape at the close to make the market look "ok"? Everyone knows how I feel about this market as of late. Feels like a trap to me. Few days back I thought we would make a low on Thursday that would hold all the way through option expiration. That low was 131.30. Gonna be interesting to see if it holds. If not we have a gap to fill at 131.15. I believe that worst case scenario 130 holds through next week. The 132 area is proving to be a significant area past few days. I am seeing a lot of complacency out there. There is just simply no fear to be found. Keep it light today people, it is Fry-day after all. Enjoy the upcoming weekend.

SPY Read for the Day - February 10, 2011

2011-02-10T05:54:00.000-08:00

We are walking into today with a sizable gap down, SPY is down .75, DOW is down -50. Yesterday the market finally started to crack, and now this gap-down if a breath of fresh air. CSCO had earnings after the bell yesterday and is getting clobbered once again down more than 10% – a huge move for a boring, slow-moving stock. Rising wedge on the SPY in anytime frame. We have lost my 132.00 support. First gap area is at 131.43-131.15. Also on the 60 minute chart the 50MA comes in @ 131.21. So filling the gap would be my first downside target today.Theirs a small shelf of support at 131. If it got really nasty , I can't see us losing 130 today. We have option expiration next Fryday, a lot of times we make a low the Thursday prior which would be today. As far as overhead resistance is concerned we have SPX 1338 just overhead. We printed 1325 just about. SPX 1274 is HUGE support. The overall trend remains up, but I’m still not looking to initiate new positions. I am light, only big core short I have on is the OIH which started to breakdown yesterday. So many divergences in this market makes it very difficult to employ much capitol either way. We can not choose the market we trade, just have to make due with what we are handed. Trading is all about your tool-set, and you will need to reach in that tool-box from time to time to change it up. You must adapt to what the market is giving you. We all know this market is due for a breather, but we have never had an environment like this with the quantitative easing. With that being said the bulls are due to get smacked. Keep a very short time-frame in mind, and you will be fine.

"Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money. I think that if people look deeply enough into their trading patterns, they find that, on balance, including all their goals, they are really getting what they want, even though they may not understand it or want to admit it." Ed Seykota

Some thoughts about gambling into earning's

2011-02-09T18:46:00.000-08:00

I was in chat room other than my own, and made these comments, figured a good idea to post them to the rest of the world, lol. Hope this helps some of ya degenerate gamblers out there!!

There are ways to play earnings, here is a case in point, few days ago for $OPEN, I bought Feb 100's while it was near 85. Normal option guys will frown on this, but anyway it works. because your catching juice. Very next day with very little movement in the stock the "juicecard" was punched, and I sold 1/2 for +100%. Now I am left with a "FREE" trade, keyword "FREE"!!! next day decided against taking all of them into earnings, so I sold another 1/4 @ +20%. So this left me with a 1/4 size of the orignal trade. and no matter what I made 20% on the trade. The remaining calls are now just about worthless. BUT and i stress BUT, if it exploded north, we might have been talking about a +300-500% trade. I will let these calls expire worthless and at the very end of the trade i made 20%. Holding common into earnings it about the stupiest thing I eVr! see noobs and seasoned traders alike do, it just plain STUPID!!! I am not meaning to offend, and apoligize in advance if I have with this statement, but if hurting someones feelins a smidge on a thursday night, might save that same said person from doing it again and save them 5-10-15-25K well then all is good. Believe me I have made every mistake there is in this game. If you don't learn from your mistakes in this game guess what? The GAME is OVER for you because you BLOW up! So please people stop it, unless your up 15-20% on a holding, dont do it. Stop making excuses and turning a STUPID gamble into an investment, this is straight from my heart!! It PAINS me to see this. I wear my heart on my sleeve ask any1 who knows me. End point is just don't hold common into earnings.

Pretty much I gotta be up 15-20% to even consider holding into earnings. Now that might be just straight up, like my IRA that I built at the lows in 09, which is 100% free right now, because i sold half of everything at 100% or better. Basically WW3 could hit, and it could go-to $0 and wouldn't hurt me. I haven't even opened the acct to look in about a year. Why? Because I am afraid I would start selling, lol. Or my cushion method like my last BIDU trade. I hit it with weight and covered 75% +5-+10, and left me with a small core short at 106.67. By the time earnings came around it was trading near 107. I was still insane green on it. And I made the decision to gamble the last 1/4, well I was wrong. And was forced to cover in after hours @ 114. End of trade from start to finish I was flat. Because of the cushion. Yes I gave all my gains back. but keyword there is "GAINS" house money people!!! But pretty much I nVr! hold common into earnings.

SPY Read for the Day - February 9, 2011

2011-02-09T05:34:00.000-08:00

We are walking into today with a moderate gap down, SPY is down .50 DOW is down -22. This market has simply been acting like a crack baby, any good or bad news has grinded it higher, its getting ridiculous, we are so overdue for a bloody day. Is that day today? I don't know, but am prepared either way. Rising wedge on the SPY in anytime frame, just a matter of time before it cracks. Levals to watch today are losing 132.00 which will drop us out of the wedge on the 60min. First gap area is at 131.43-131.15. Theres a small shelf of support at 131. We have option expiration next fryday, a lot of times we make a low the Thursday prior which would be tomorrow. We just may be setup for some selling/profit taking into tomorrow morning. As far as overhead resistance is concerned we have SPX 1338 just overhead. Yesterday we printed 1325 just about. I am light, only core short I have on is the OIH which started to breakdown yesterday. So many divergences in this market makes it very difficult to employ much capitol either way. We can not choose the market we trade, just have to make due with what we are handed. Trading is all about your toolset, and you will need to reach in thaty tool-box from time to time to change it up. You must adapt to what the market is giving you. We all know this market is due for a breather, but we have never had an environment like this with the quantitative easing. Keep a very short time-frame in mind, and you will be fine.

SPX Read going forward - February 6, 2011

2011-02-06T22:42:00.000-08:00

We got our dip alrighty, Two frydays ago, A one day dip was about all the market could muster. The rebound from the Egypt sell-off news was pretty impressive. And for now market is acting very strong and looks as though it wants to go higher. Next resistance is at 1338 with major support under us at 1274. Would expect a tight slow grinder action higher for now. The normal ebb and flow of the market is dis-connected at the moment, with so many divergences and things I am not comfortable with. So we play it as we have been for the past few weeks, Lean to the long side being very careful with small size as far as swinging goes. Hit and run trading, very short term swings, take what the market will give ya. Just be ready to bail if we see some nasty selling come in. I am still looking for a nice correction to start anytime now, sound/feel like a broken record. Lets see what Mr. Market has in store for us this week.

SPY Read for the Day - February 3, 2011

2011-02-03T05:50:00.000-08:00

Very small gap-down this morning with the SPY down about .30, DOW futures down -14. Yesterday we digested near the upper range of Tuesday's candle. We have a major problem in Egypt and the market is just laughing it off. It all "feels" wrong. At some point you would think that it would matter. Know this, if this shit over there escalates, we could just wake up to a 100 point gapdown, think about that as you are loading the boat with longs. Wait a minute hmmm big gapdowns, man I must be dreaming, that doesn't happen anymore, lol. We are fighting the FED which is 100% pointless. Gap overhead to fill @ 130.48 and one underneath @ 128.68. We also have the USD tagging the 3 year trend-line on the weekly under it at roughly 77.00. Which I expect to hold at least for a dead-cat bounce and so far we are seeing that. As I have been saying I believe we are in a topping pattern and to expect new 52 week highs on any day. We all know this market is due for a breather, but we have never had an environment like this with the quantitative easing. Very hard to be "Balls to the wall" long up here, although there are some awesome setups emerging, but at the same time, you just simply cant short the market. If ya must try to slip into your bear suit, please stick to the equity's. As far as resistance we have 132 overhead, with major support at 126.00. Gonna be interesting to see how we trade "IF" we get there. Be careful up here. That is all.

SPY Read for the Day - February 2, 2011

2011-02-02T05:44:00.000-08:00

Very small gap-down this morning with the SPY down about .40, DOW futures down -11. Yesterday impressed me, as so far it looks like last Fryday was a vicious bear trap, which seems to be par for the course in this market. Was yesterday a Bull trap? Time will tell. It is just impossible to short weakness in this trend. We are fighting the FED which is 100% pointless. Gap overhead to fill @ 130.74 and one underneath @ 128.63. We also have the USD tagging the 3 year trend-line on the weekly under it at roughly 77.00. Which I expect to hold at least for a dead-cat bounce. As I have been saying I believe we are in a topping pattern and to expect new 52 week highs on any day. We all know this market is due for a breather, but we have never had an environment like this with the quantitative easing. Very hard to be "Balls to the wall" long up here, although there are some awesome setups emerging, but at the same time, you just simply cant short the market. If ya must try to slip into your bear suit, please stick to the equity's, or the OIH :-). As far as resistance we have 132 overhead, Gonna be interesting to see how we trade "IF" we get there.

SPY Read for the Day - February 1, 2011

2011-02-01T06:02:00.000-08:00

We are walking into a moderate gap-up today with the SPY printing a high of 129.50, Leaving another gap to fill at 128.68 under us. More than half of Friday’s losses have been recovered. Not bad considering Friday was the single worst day since August. Fryday should have marked the beginning of a pullback, but there is voo-doo in the markets right now, the market will try to cause the most pain to all involved on a daily basis. The technical's are not working in a normal ebb and flow for a while now. While we are what I believe to be a topping pattern, new highs can happen and wont be ruled out. The daily fell out of a rising wedge and today is back-testing the uptrend line of same. We are smack in the middle of support and resistance channel. With 126.00 under us, and 132 overhead, basically range-bound. Place your bets really. If we were to see weakness today, the gapfill is the obvious first target then the 20MA @ 128.27. We also have the USD rapidly approaching the 3 year trend-line under it at roughly 77.25. Which I expect to hold at least for a dead-cat bounce, It has seen 77.41 here in the pre-mkt session. Stay on your toes people, hit and run trading still is the plan. Take them profits quickly.

SPX Read going forward - January 30, 2011

2011-01-30T16:43:00.000-08:00

This has been what I believe to be one of the most vicious bull traps in a while. At DTBC we have been well prepared and ready for this by being in a heavy cash position. On Fryday we had the Egypt news etc. Which I believed something of the sort was on the way, and the market would not handle it well. Along with some weak econmic reports, and most companys getting drilled on earnings. As I am writing this around 7pm EST, the ES is down about 8 points, which is pretty big. I believe we are still in a topping process which started when 1274 was first touched, and this will be the first time in a long time that the dip buyers will be tested, see there has not been a dip in a long time, yet all I hear past month or so, is that the dips are being bought, HUH? What dip? This market can still pop a new 52 week high, although I dont think we will. Patience is key up here. I do not expect to close over 1274 this month. Check out my monthly SPX chart and "1274" is no joke. We have a gap on the SPX to fill at 1257 with the 1260-1263 area acting as support. I will be looking for gap-down support plays for the early part of this week. 126.00 is support on the SPY. Swinging for the short term future is going to be tough long or short. Chop-fest coming. The VIX put in the biggest candle since May on Fryday. Potential target's and % moves. A 5% correction = 1231 failing right near my major support of 1235 and the 50% fib retracement since the last correction, 6% would be 1219 which was April's high's and the 38% fib retracement. 7% to me is the sweet-spot, putting us at 1206, which is another one of my major support areas. A full 10% would be 1167, again near major support of 1161. The dollar is extremely oversold here, and I am looking for a run in it. Which would put pressure on the market. So in a nutshell, lets chill this week and be ready to pounce!!

SPY Read for the Day - January 28, 2011

2011-01-28T05:35:00.000-08:00

Feel like a broken record with the read of the day as of late, not much is changing. We are popping new 52 week highs in pre mkt.The market has had to digest a lot of stuff this week. Lots of economic numbers, lots of earnings reports, State of the Union address, FOMC meeting – through it all the market is posting decent gains. A lot of sectors and ETF have already corrected by falling 5% give or take. I think sideways chop at best till the levee' breaks one way or the other. Now is not the time to be complacent. As far as support under us, we have the 38% fibber @ 128.48, and a rising trendline meeting up at the 50% fib @ 127.96. Still have gaps down at 129.18, 125.75 and 124.60 to fill. Very uncomfortable up here long, most of my portfolio is short. Hit and run trading here till we get a clear trend. Sure as hell feels like a topping pattern up here, which as previously stated is a process not an event, and new 52 week highs are expected. SPX 1338 is next MAJOR resistance in the market. As of right now, I cant see 1338, but anything can happen. SPY 126 is support, 132 is resistance. Limit size and amount of positions still is the theme.

SPY Read for the Day - January 26, 2011

2011-01-26T06:00:00.000-08:00

Feel like a broken record with the read of the day as of late, not much is changing, We have the FOMC today. No rate change is expected, so the market will again be focused on the statement and probably pretty boring till its released. We are seeing some weakness here in pre mkt with the futures slipping a little, after popping new 52 week highs. A lot of sectors and ETF have already corrected by falling 5% give or take. I think sideways chop at best till the levee' breaks one way or the other. Now is not the time to be complacent. As far as support under us, we have the 38% fibber @ 128.15, and a rising trendline meeting up at the 50% fib @ 127.68. Still have gaps down at 125.75 and 124.60 to fill. Very uncomfortable up here long, most of my portfolio is short. Hit and run trading here till we get a clear trend. Sure as hell feels like a topping pattern up here, which as previously stated is a process not an event, and new 52 week highs are expected. SPX 1338 is next MAJOR resistance in the market. As of right now, I cant see 1338, but anything can happen. Limit size and amount of positions still is the theme.

SPY Read for the Day - January 25, 2011

2011-01-25T05:50:00.000-08:00

Still sticking with the plan, We are seeing some weakness here in pre mkt with the futures down -35, and commodities getting wacked, gold is down 17 points. The earnings theme is continuing. You can add VMW to the list of casualties. So after going almost two months without a 0.5% SPX decline, the market registered its first decent loss last Wednesday, but here we are almost a week later and there’s been no follow through and the SPX is within 5 points of its high.The bulls are not giving up easy, and the bears need more fuel, sideways chop at best till the levee' breaks. As far as support under us, we have the 38% fibber @ 128.17, and a rising trendline meeting up at the 50% fib @ 127.71. Still have gaps down at 125.75 and 124.60 to fill. Very uncomfortable up here long, most of my portfolio is short. Hit and run trading here till we get a clear trend.

SPX Read going forward - January 23, 2011

2011-01-22T21:45:00.000-08:00

The plan has been to wait 2 weeks into 2011 and see if the move can hold. Last week we saw a lot of technical damage everywhere, which is due to the distribution volume we saw. Key to note was the selling post earnings, Think AAPL,FFIV,FCX,GOOG etc... We broke major resistance at 1274 last week and tagged 1296. In my honest opinion we are topping here, Now remember tops are process's not events like a bottom. We may pop a new 52 week high here and there up here, and the next major resistance is up at 1338, I doubt we see it. Historically this is a very weak time. I expect the volitility to return, which we are already seeing. RSI is weak, and is in a rising wedge on the weekly, MACD crossed bearish, and the stochastic s which have been embedded since Dec 1st are rolling over. The ATR is in Davy Jones locker looking to wake up, The VIX is just begging to rip higher, and the NYMO which I have been saying for a long time is not right. Copper/silver/gold etc, are all WAY overdone. Remember the market will have its bounces, please keep level headed, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to profit in this market. There is a time to be aggressive and there is not. We are traders not gamblers. I will not short this market here for many reasons, but one is the FED. Now I will go after over-bloated pigs AAPL/BIDU etc...I have seen each and every major move on the SPX for 3+ years dam near to the penny on SUP/RES. Ignore all the noise out there from unproven people "blogs/cnbc/twitter". Now for the potential target's and % moves. A 5% correction = 1231 failing right near my major support of 1235 and the 50% fib retracement since the last correction, 6% would be 1219 which was April's high's and the 38% fib retracement. 7% to me is the sweet-spot, putting us at 1206, which is another one of my major support areas. A full 10% would be 1167, again near major support of 1161. Which I welcome with open arm's. Patience is key up here. I do not expect to close over 1274 this month. Check out my monthly SPX chart and "1274" is no joke. You must have a solid grasp of the market on all time frames to be able to judge how much capitol you employ. My cautious stance the past month has been correct, we only popped 22 points over 1274 in a very choppy fashion. I.E. topping pattern the instant 1274 was tagged. This is the greatest bull in history and is by no means over. We shall see 1400+ in 2011, Just keep it real. We have ran 250+ points in four months. Swinging for the short term future is going to be tough long or short. Chop-fest coming. We have a lot of earning's out this week, and FOMC rate decision among other news due, Speaking of news, the shape this market is in, I do not believe it would handle a piece of bad news very well, all about underlying condition's and sentiment. Cruise control this week, will play it as it comes.

SPY Read for the Day - January 20, 2011

2011-01-20T08:38:00.000-08:00

Coming into 2011 I expected the market to fade after 2 weeks. It is starting. Now for the next two days I think we are in middle of a bear trap here before op ex. We make low of week by lunch today,then drift higher threw option expiration is what I am looking for. Of course more downside would be healthier, just my thoughts for the next 2 days in the market. first two weeks of 2011 have passed, the true market is coming back. Things can get screwy at end of option expiration. I need to see this week finish out, to be able to give my read for the following week. Still looking for the dollar to recouple here soon. Things are getting there head ripped off like AAPL/GS/FCX/GOLD/COPPER etc... We have gaps to fill at 127.43,125.75 and 124.60. losing 127.50 today could trigger some selling. Top's whether long term or short term are events, I don't expect us to just drop 5-10% in a straight line. We have uber amounts of support under us, with SPX 1274 being STRONG. Good luck out there this week all.

SPX Read Going Forward - January 17, 2011

2011-01-17T22:22:00.000-08:00

We broke major resistance at 1274 last week and tagged 1293. The plan has been to wait 2 weeks into 2011 and see it the move can hold. We may drift higher for a week or so here, but I fully expect a nice 5-10% correction soon. We also had a "Golden Cross" on the SPY Weekly. This adds to my dip scenario, along with a lot of other things in the market. Plus most important of all: We are walking into the meat of earnings season with AAPL/IBM reporting Tuesday night. The likes of GS/GOOG/FCX etc... this week as well. During this time of the year it is best to sideline it so to speak. Be sure to check all of your current holdings for there reporting date. Nothing worse then not realizing your stock is reporting until it is too late. We are traders not gamblers. Good luck out there this week.

A look at AAPL, January 17, 2011

2011-01-17T12:55:00.001-08:00

Well well well. They decide to rock there stock one day ahead of earnings. This people is the reason I love the market, never a dull moment. Now what so I see here huh? Well its gonna be a wild ride tomorrow for sure, only for the most advanced traders in other words. First of all, IMHO this sucker needs to come on down regardless of Jobs or earnings, and usually it does on earnings, always blasts higher 2 weeks prior then sell's off. It has ran from 320 to 348 in past two weeks, again this is normal. We have a gap-area at 337.17-336.12. Which should be in play tomorrow. I have come up with 335 as first support under this stock, which is not strong at all, only traded there for a few days, but combined with the gap area there, I like this as the potential sweet spot on it tomorrow. I expect the volume to be off the hook as well, as it has really sucked lately. So kinda just thinking out loud here as a potential nice bounce off the 335-338 area, we have the 20MA @ 331 for stops. Who knows, I might even take a couple call's into earnings, as this may be the rare event that it actually trades higher on earnings ,because it was down walking into the report. Please do not hold any common into earnings, that is not what discipline is all about, if ya wanna gamble please use calls, as you will know your total risk on the trade.

An earnings gamble ADTN January 16, 2011

2011-01-16T11:34:00.000-08:00

I am going to do an earnings gamble here. Reports Tuesday night. We have an "Upside Breakout" coming out of a 16 year pattern. This can run huge. HT @trending123. All-Time high's on this low floater that is heavily shorted @ 15%. I am looking at getting into the Jan 41 calls at .25 for a 100% gamble. Like the risk/reward a lot. I am also looking at Feb 42 calls here at .60. The weekly and long-term weekly charts look fantastic.

SPY Read for the Day - January 14, 2011

2011-01-14T05:43:00.000-08:00

Market gapping down decently Dow futures down -45 in Pre-Mkt. We had INTC and JPM reports come in, and Market appears to be fading. The plan is intact. "Looking to see where we are after 2 weeks of 2011 has passed to more than likely fade the move made". So far 1274 has proven to be SOLID resistance. Being long since we first tagged it would have done little for your portfolio expect put on unnecessary risk. Earnings season has just begun, we keep doing as we have been. Killing the market, but in a non-aggressive way. I am about 85% cash and sleeping well. 127.83 was support recently, doubt we hold it. Gaps to fill at 127.43, 125.75, 124.60. Where is real support you ask? Well that my friends is all the way down at 122.08. The S&P has closed 93 consecutive days above its 50-day MA – a feat that has happened less than 20 times since 1928. It’s also closed 31 consecutive days above its 10-day MA – a feat that’s never been accomplished. That’s how long it’s been since the market has even had a decent down day. This certainly isn’t what I’d call normal. Stay on your toe's people.

Detailed trade plan for a core hold on $MCD

2011-01-13T20:47:00.000-08:00

Has been crushed down 10% already. My plan is to buy 1/4-1/2 size position as close to 71.45 as possible, when the market corrects if this is still weak, look to add close to 69.25. the $70 area should hold this one, was a recent breakout there There is a good chance that this will hold up well in any market correction. Core hold ,will probably sell covered calls against it. No reason this cant go back to the upper 70's and beyond. As far as a stop loss, I will run 8-10% which would put it near the 65.80 support area. I really don't think we see this at 65 any time soon.

SPY Read for the Day - January 13, 2011

2011-01-13T05:53:00.000-08:00

Market gapping down Dow futures down -20 in Pre-Mkt. Yesterday market finally broke out of its 1 week long range, and went nowhere. No need to over analyze things. Sooner or later we’ll have stiff down day or down week and the bears will come out and say: “I told you so”… Need to see 127.83 hold today, as our first support under us. We have gap support at 127.99 and a fill at 127.43. Still looking to see where we are after 2 weeks of 2011 has passed to more than likely fade the move made. The market has been pretty boring because we haven’t gotten much movement. I know, I sound like a broken record. This has been the situation for a few weeks. It is what it is. Earnings season has kicked off with AA reporting , AA never really has a big impact anyway, INTC is tonight. JPM in the morning will help paint the picture going forward. I really dont see a big move upside today as the market will probably wait on INTC and JPM. Let's stay on our toes and enjoy this ride while it lasts's. When the last bear turns bullish we shall see a turn :-). I will lighten up my longs today ahead of these two reports.

SPY Read for the Day - January 12, 2011

2011-01-12T05:52:00.000-08:00

Market gapping up decently Dow futures up +70 in Pre-Mkt. Today’s open will be above the 7-day consolidation pattern…I hate breakouts that involve a gap. As a rule sell some of your holdings into big gap ups. Need to see 127.83 hold today. Sure looks like 1290 is in site here. Still looking to see where we are after 2 weeks of 2011 has passed to more than likely fade the move made, whether we are at 1274 or 1290-1310. I know, I sound like a broken record. This has been the situation for a couple weeks. It is what it is. Earnings season has kicked off with AA reporting , AA never really has a big impact anyway, INTC is tonight. JPM in the morning will help paint the picture going forward. Let's stay on our toes and enjoy this ride while it lasts's. When the last bear turns bullish we shall see a turn :-)

SPY Read for the Day - January 11, 2011

2011-01-11T05:58:00.000-08:00

Market gapping up decently Dow futures up +54 in Pre-Mkt. The spy is .25 from its 52 week highs. Hard to be patient up here. The market is much more boring and moves much slower than you think. It takes time for things to play out. but there is a plan. Looking to see where we are after 2 weeks of 2011 has passed to more than likely fade the move made, whether we are at 1274 or 1290-1310. So far 1274 has proven to be SOLID resistance. Being long since we first tagged it would have done little. Earnings season has kicked off with AA reporting last night, and so far so good. AA never really has a big impact anyway, bigger names are coming. Let's stay on our toes and enjoy this ride while it lasts's. When the last bear turns bullish we shall see a turn :-)

Trade Setup AMKR - January 11, 2010

2011-01-10T21:39:00.000-08:00

This one is poised to rip higher, Over 7.80 and free space "Vacuum". Looking for a nice little breakout here. Could see 10 in time, I'm only looking for .50-1.00. Stop at losing 7.50 as a close. ".30"

SPX Read going forward - January 10, 2011

2011-01-09T22:00:00.000-08:00

We have reached MAJOR resistance at 1274 and we are having trouble. RSI is at 70.26 and in danger of tripping a sell signal by losing 70. The MACD crossed bearish on Fry-Day as well. Also saw heavy selling volume 3 days out of the last 5. We may drift higher for a week or so here, but I fully expect a nice 5-10% correction soon. We also have a "Golden Cross" setting up on the SPY Weekly. This adds to my dip scenario, along with a lot of other things in the market. Plus most important of all: We are walking into earnings season with Alcoa reporting Monday night. My gut is that we hold up somewhat here this week at least early. Patience is a virtue, We must execute it here, Let the institutions push this market now. I expected to fade the move the market made after week 2 of 2011. Lets see what happens with 1 week down. Further upside to 1290-1300 is possible and I would more than likely fade it.

SPY Read for the Day - January 7, 2011

2011-01-07T05:48:00.000-08:00

I am expecting the job's number on Fry-Day to be less than a grand-slam, and weakness to follow it, Great chance of a gap fill at 125.75, Another gap @ 124.60 as well. 52 week highs just overhead at 127.83. The market is holding up very well just after the NFP job's #.

9:30 Fed Chairman Bernanke to testify before the Senate, I'm sure he will say something positive that the market likes,and ignite us, the question is, will it stick throughout the day. It's fryday people. Lets see what this market wants to give us today.

Goldman Sachs Raised $DO to Buy from Sell- Adds to Conviction Buy List , Will be watching this one closely, Should be a nice trade in here today.

On the USD we are through 81.26, The decoupled as was called for last month for the HO-HO rally, and it should recouple here shortly, It can not just rally to infinity and beyond and not expect it not affect the market, commodity's especially. I can see a run to 82.62 then 83.65. We shall see.

SOX Trade Setups - January 7, 2011

2011-01-06T22:47:00.001-08:00

SPY Read for the day, January 5,2011

2011-01-05T06:00:00.001-08:00

I’m not taking big chances here. The market is trying to figure out what it wants to do. We saw a weak market early yesterday and tagged the 5MA and finished strong, walking into today we are gapping down, and a ADP job's report has lifted us. Gap from Monday to fill @ 125.75. Expect chop till it's filled. The dollar as expected is strong trading at 80.40 in Pre-Mkt. For weeks have been looking for 1274/127.40 to be a problem, and so far it has stopped us. Still looking for the 5-10% correction off the highs. This will not be in a straight line, but more choppy. Anyway this is certainly not a time to be aggressive. Let the institutions do the work for us, we can just sit off to the side so to speak for a bit. Good luck out there today.

SPX Read going forward - January 2, 2010

2011-01-02T16:08:00.000-08:00

We hit the ultimate target for 2010 of 1250 and pushed to 1262. The next MAJOR resistance is at 1274 and its only 12 points away. The SPX was beyond super tight past three weeks as was expected. A big move is coming, and we may drift higher for a week or so here, but I fully expect a nice 5-10% correction soon, we can get aggressive then.. 5% Dip = 1200, 8% Dip = 1161, 10% Dip = 1136. Notice the 8% number? Yes 1161 is MAJOR support in the market, Would love to see 1161, we shall see how it plays out. I suggest we start out very slow this week/year. Lets see what the market gives us. Whatever the market does week 1-2 I expect to fade it. Meaning If we sell for 1-2 weeks, then we buy it. Or vise versa. We also have a "Golden Cross" setting up on the SPY Weekly. This adds to my dip scenario, along with a lot of other things in the market. Don't forget to take profits, you don't see a hungry rat in a cheese shop do you?

SPX Read going forward - December 26, 2010

2010-12-26T21:48:00.000-08:00

We hit the ultimate tgt of 1250 and pushed to 1259. The next MAJOR resistance is at 1274 and its only 16 points away. I am running about 80% cash and suggest to all to do the same. We have killed this market all year, and from 1039 this past August. Lets not be greedy. There is a correction coming early next year, we can get aggressive then. I am in a few shorts for the first time since 1039, and looking at a few new ones on my weekly watch-list, and I believe an easy 5-10% correction is coming. Stick with the best setups from here on out till year end. If you are a bag-holder of some stocks and are still down a couple points, my advise is to bail up here. Don't forget to take profits, you don't see a hungry rat in a cheese shop do you?

Behind the Trade MON - December 26, 2010

2010-12-26T10:38:00.000-08:00

I started a short here, 1/2 size. At 66.75. The 100MA on the weekly is at 69.53, which I will use as a stop by getting over it. I just might use a 8% stop here which is 5.34 moving stop up to 72.09, Will just feel it out. I expect this to roll over. Here to at least 60-63. This 67ish area is no joke, was solid support for 3 years, it should become HUGE resistance here. Inly 1% short interest here, my kinda short.

Trade Setup $MON - December 21, 2010

2010-12-21T08:29:00.001-08:00

I will probably start a short here today, and plan on swinging it. 66.50+. The 100MA on the weekly is at 69.53, which I will use as a stop by getting over it. I expect this to roll over. Here to at least 62-63. This 67ish area is no joke, was solid support for 3 years, it should become HUGE resistance here.

A Look at the Volatility Index (VIX) and the (SPX) December 18th, 2010

2010-12-18T17:16:00.000-08:00

I hear all the time that the VIX can't be charted, I say phooey, I have used this chart since early 2008, And has helped me a lot. This wants lower, Possibly 11. Which is further support my thesis going forward in the market's. We are in a low volatility environment at least until year end. Expect super tight range intraday averaging about 40-50 dow points max. Now My feel is that the VIX is going to get hammered here further in the next month or so, and then will be setting up for a vicious spike higher, which will lead to my predicted SPX correction of at least 8% in early 2011, which would bring us down to 1150ish. The 50% fib is at 1121 which would be an absolute gift,1121 is also the 10% correction off of 1250. My major SPX support is at 1093 for a worst case scenario move. The market right now is super strong and bullish yes. But we have major overhead resistance @ 1274. Levels not scene since 2008. These levels up here are no joke, There is still some price by volume resistance to get through. Basically the "Pro" traders have rolled out for the holidays, and in my opinion there is no reason to be a hero here to catch a measly 25 points of upside. Let's get into next year and reassess the situation, We can still take swings to the long side here on out, as the ice is still thick, albeit cracking though ever so slightly. So I suggest taking 1/4-1/2 size max for a while here. Just about every "Pro" trader I know disagree's with me here. Which gives me further conviction in the call.

SPY Read for the Day - December 17, 2010

2010-12-17T05:27:00.000-08:00

We broke new 52 week highs Tuesday and practically hit my target of 1250 for 2010. What concerns me is we broke the high on a FOMC spike which was sold off. Market is very "boring" right now. I see a lot of warning signs here, and to be honest I am not that interested in swing trading this market right now. I have the same feeling in my bones that I had back in April, and everyone said I was nuts. Well we corrected 19% then. The market will always be here. If market looks like a ZERO, don't be a hero is my motto play it safe. Today is option expiration day. We can get volatile. Next resistance is @ SPX 1274. Ho-Ho-Ho. Good luck out there today.

Behind the Trade BIDU - December 16, 2010

2010-12-16T20:46:00.000-08:00

I have been licking my chops for months to short this pig. And have tried a few times, for a couple points here and there, It has not impressed me in the least, and I refuse to believe that it was worth $1500 a share. I was seeing distribution here for a while. On Tuesday the 15th I hit it hard at 106.67. Now I have been wanting to get into a core short to hold for a while, and this is how I did it. Shorted 2500 shares @ 106.67 cover 1k @ 105.67 For +$1.00, stock still was getting killed on volume, covered another 1k @ 103.99 for +$2.68. Now I have a core of 500 @ 106.67. It saw 97.35 today for a cool +9.32. This would have to tag 114 for the trade to be flat. I have MONSTER cushion now. This is how you get into core's. Sure it would be nice to have all the size still. But it would be breaking a very detailed trading plan I have been stalking for months. We see 96 here I might take it off for +10, but I see 88 here easy.

SPY Read for the Day - December 16, 2010

2010-12-16T05:07:00.000-08:00

We broke new 52 week highs Tuesday and practically hit my target of 1250 for 2010. What concerns me is we broke the high on a FOMC spike which was sold off hard. I have scene it too many times in the past, that the FOMC marks a "short" term top in the market. I went home short the SPY and still am up about 20% as of Wednesday's close. I see a dip to 122.90-123.50 max here by mid Thursday. I think buying Thursday's low timed right will be awesome. And we rip higher through option expiration on Fryday. Next resistance is @ SPX 1274. We are in a low volatility environment here until yr end IMO unless pullback some right now, Expect super tight range intraday till end of the year. Ho-Ho-Ho. Good luck out there today.

SPY Read for the Day - December 15, 2010

2010-12-14T21:06:00.000-08:00

We broke new 52 week highs Tuesday and practically hit my target of 1250 for 2010. What concerns me is we broke the high on a FOMC spike which was sold off hard. I have scene it too many times in the past, that the FOMC marks a "short" term top in the market. I went home short the SPY. I see a dip to 122.08-122.60 max here by Thursday morning. I think buying Thursday's low timed right will be awesome. And we rip higher through option expiration on Fryday. Now we may just blow through 125/1250 as well and run. Next resistance is @ SPX 1274. This is gonna be fun!! Ho-Ho-Ho. Good luck out there today.

SPY Read for the Day - December 14, 2010

2010-12-14T05:59:00.001-08:00

Again we broke new 52 week highs yesterday and practically hit my target of 1250 for 2010. On the weekly we have a beautiful Cup~N~Handle with a measured move to 135-140. The 8MA under us @ 123.78. Major support at 122.08 We need to hold 122.08/1235. Gap-fill @ 118.49. At 2:15 ET the FOMC announces their overnight rate policy. Their statement could move the market. But I suspect a small hiccup at most. Now we may just blow through 125/1250 as well and run. Next resistance is @ SPX 1274. This is gonna be fun!! Ho-Ho-Ho. Good luck out there today.

Trade Setup (FRG) - December 13, 2010

2010-12-13T19:05:00.000-08:00

Awesome volume here today, cant swing it here IMO, but will be on my radar tomorrow for a trade. Into the vacuum here and weekly as well. Losing 10.56 would have me bailing more than likely.

TYC Trade Setup

2010-12-12T21:18:00.001-08:00

Just an absolutely beutiful chart here. Nice flag. Looking for a ripper here. I see 45 easy. On the weekly it broke into a major vacuum @ 40. Next resistance is at 45. Can hit 50 with a little time. Stops at 40.70

SPX Read for the Week - December 12, 2010

2010-12-12T15:46:00.000-08:00

We broke over my 1235 last week, and closed at 1240. Would really like to see 1235 hold till year end, but not mandatory.The next MAJOR resistance is at 1274, and looks as though it will get hit this year. I am running about 60% cash and suggest to all to do the same. Have been looking for 1250 by year end, that's only 10 points away. We have killed this market all year, and from 1039 this past August. Lets not be greedy. There is a correction coming early next year, we can get aggressive then. Stick with the best setups from here on out till year end. Don't forget to take profits, you don't see a hungry rat in a cheese shop do you?

SPY Read for the Day - December 9, 2010

2010-12-09T05:51:00.001-08:00

We are gapping up near major resistance of 124.00/SPX 1235. Long until proven wrong. I'm ready for a launch, or we can come in a little to form the handle. On the weekly we have a beautiful Cup~N~Handle with a measured move to 135-140. The 8MA under us @ 122.86. Major support at 122.08 We need to hold 120.87/1206. Gap-fill @ 118.49. I suspect that over the next couple of days we will build the handle for the cup at major support. Now we may just blow through 124/1235 as well and run. This is gonna be fun!! Ho-Ho-Ho. Good luck out there today.

SPY Read for the Day - December 8, 2010

2010-12-08T05:53:00.000-08:00

We gaped into major resistance of SPX 1235. The SPX had moved 60 points in less than a week…a brief pullback isn’t anything to be concerned about.. On the weekly we have a beautiful Cup~N~Handle with a measured move to 135-140. The 8MA under us @ 122.41. Major support at 122.08 We need to hold 120.87/1206. Gap-fill @ 118.49. I suspect that over the next couple of days we will build the handle for the cup at major support. Now we may just blow through 124/1235 as well and run. Patience. Good luck out there today.

SPY Read for the Day - December 7, 2010

2010-12-07T05:44:00.000-08:00

The big news this morning is a plan to extend the Bush tax cuts, the market likes the decision. We are getting the huge gap up +85. We are gaping into major resistance of SPX 1235. Which should be a tough nut to crack. On the weekly we have a beautiful Cup~N~Handle with a measured move to 135-140. My target for 2010 remains 1250, and 2011 target is 1350. The 8MA under us @ 121.54. Major support at 122.08 We need to hold 120.87/1206. Gapfill @ 118.49. Santa is coming to town. Ho-Ho-Ho. We see today just how strong this market is. Watch for the fade. Good luck out there today.

SPX Read for the Week - December 5, 2010

2010-12-05T22:30:00.000-08:00

We have 1206 as our support and 1235 overhead as resistance. Looking to see 1235 tested early next week. And probably a stall there for a few days. Still see at least 1250 during the upcoming Ho-Ho rally. Stick with the best setups from here on out till year end. Don't forget to take profits, you don't see a hungry rat in a cheese shop do you?

A Look at the Airline Index (XAL) and (DAL)

2010-12-05T20:59:00.000-08:00

The XAL looks great here, I will be watching this very closely this week. Nice pennant, and I think this sector is gonna make a move. Really like the idea of sector rotation over here. I like DAL and LLC .

SPY Read for the Day - December 3, 2010

2010-12-03T05:47:00.001-08:00

Coming off a HUGE 2 day in the market's sure feels good to have unloaded into it, I'm about 15% long right now.. Futures are down 50 points on a Shasta McNasty job's #. No reason to panic really, All targets remain, just let the institutions do the heavy lifting here for us. We chill for a bit. On the weekly we have a beautiful Cup~N~Handle with a measured move to 135-140. My target for 2010 remains 1250, and 2011 target is 1350. The 20MA under us @ 120.43. Major support at 120.87 We need to hold 120.87/1206. Gapfill @ 118.49. Santa is coming to town. Ho-Ho-Ho. We see today just how strong this market is. Keep it light. Good luck out there today.

SPY Read for the Day - December 2, 2010

2010-12-02T05:48:00.000-08:00

Coming off a HUGE day in the market things look good here. Futures are up 25 points. I don't expect a big rally ahead of tomorrows job's numbers, but once they are outta the way, we are good to go. Kinda looking for a flat/sideways day here today. On the weekly we have a beautiful Cup~N~Handle with a measured move to 135-140. My target for 2010 remains 1250, and 2011 target is 1350. Ho-Ho Rally hat time. The 20MA under us @ 120.30. Major support at 120.87 We need to hold 120.87/1206. Santa is coming to town. Ho-Ho-Ho. Good luck out there today.

SPY Would anyone like some tea and crumpets with there Cup~N~Handle?

2010-12-01T18:04:00.000-08:00

SPY Read for the Day - December 1, 2010

2010-12-01T05:36:00.000-08:00

The market closed flat for the month of Nov. which isn't bad considering the massive rally off the Aug lows. We ran 189 points and gave back 55 just under 5% all good.Futures are up huge 131 points. We ran into a wall at 120/1200. Still have the 50MA still under us @ 117.94. Which was tested yesterday. The 20MA overhead at 120.22. There is gap fill @ 116.73. We need to reclaim 120.87/1206. The dollar has been very strong and has resistance @ the 200MA 81.75. Support @ 80.48. Santa is coming to town. Ho-Ho-Ho. Good luck out there today.

A look at COPPER - November 30, 2010

2010-11-30T20:50:00.000-08:00

317 support has held up very well after the trend reversal on 11-17. Possible head and shoulders set-up here, But like the GLD did today, I think this rips higher, pulling the market higher. Copper is a MAJOR market tell. I watch it like a hawk. RSI broke 50. Looming MACD cross. Stochs are looking sweet. 400 first target here, then new 52 week highs. Copper ran early in July before the market did. I expect the same here.

SPY Read for the Day - November 30, 2010

2010-11-30T05:52:00.001-08:00

The market is approx. flat for the month which isn't bad considering the massive rally off the Aug lows. .Futures are down 91 points. We ran into a wall at 120/1200. Still have the 50MA still under us @ 117.85. Which was tested yesterday. We are back again already, not a good sign. Bulls need to show up today.The 20MA overhead at 119.36. The gap fill 116.73. We need to reclaim 120.87/1206. We may just shake hard today and lose the 50MA, in any event keep share size low, until we get some resolve here. The dollar has been very strong and has resistance @ the 200MA 81.74. Good luck out there today.

RIG What a long strange trip its been.

2010-11-29T20:12:00.000-08:00

What a long strange trip its been. After getting crushed since its 52 week highs of 94.88 this has retraced back 50% and is looking for more. Over 69 puts us into a nice little breakout which should carry this to 74.

SPX Read going forward - November 28, 2010

2010-11-28T14:21:00.000-08:00

We got our 5% pullback to almost the 50MA last week. We have 1206 and 1235 overhead as resistance. The dollar is ripping and has stopped just short of the resistance of 80.48, Next target is 81.26-81.70. But does it really matter? We have seen it start to decouple already. Looking to see 1206 busted next week. Don't see a big pullback, but we can slip back to 1175 easy. We are in a 20/50 "Pincher" set-up here. The next move will be big, up/down, I am leaning north. Still see 1250 during the upcoming Ho-Ho rally. The downside plan is simple, If we lose the recent low of 1173 and the 50MA @ 1176, we are buyers from 1173 to 1161 support, and we wait. If we lose 1150 then we bail, and wait for the next support.Stick with the best stocks from here on out till year end. Don't forget to take profits, you don't see a hungry rat in a cheese shop do you?

A look at the USDX November 26, 2010

2010-11-26T05:50:00.000-08:00

Just simply has been crushed, Has reached the downside target of 75.69. Has powered back to test the downtrend line and bulll flagged back to the 50MA. The RSI back-test is passing too. Ive been looking for 79-80 here for a while, and in pre mkt we have tagged 80.60,which is thru resistance of 80.49. Would expect weakness here on FA, but would not surprise me to see some more upside. Lets watch the intraday correlation closely.

SPX Read going forward - November 24, 2010

2010-11-24T08:19:00.000-08:00

Mission accomplished, we broke new 52 week highs to my long projected target of 1228. We got our 5% pullback to almost the 50MA last week. We have 1206 and 1235 overhead as resistance. The dollar popped yesterday but has since rolled over, and lost support of 79.73 If it see's further upside I'd say 80.06 max for now. But does it really matter? We have seen it start to decouple already. Looking to see 1206 busted next week. Don't see a big pullback, but we can slip back to 1175 easy. Classic breakdown and retest here. The 20MA @ 1199.16 is the first upside test. Still see 1250 during the upcoming Ho-Ho rally. Stick with the best stocks from here on out till year end. Don't forget to take profits, you don't see a hungry rat in a cheese shop do you?

SPY Read for the Day - November 24, 2010

2010-11-24T05:43:00.001-08:00

The market is approx. flat for the month which isn’t bad considering the massive rally off the Aug lows. .Futures are up 75 points. We ran into a wall at 120/1200. Still have the rising 50MA still under us @ 117.44. The 20MA overhead at 119.42. The gap fill 116.73. We need to reclaim 120.87/1206. The dollar has been very strong and has resistance @ 79.73 which it has pushed through yesterday and is losing support of 79.17 now. The next resistance on it is at 80.06. I expect uber low volume today, and will be trading very light. Jobs #'s look good, we should have a decent mkt today. 120.87 max upside tgt.Good luck out there today.

Had to share this great Video.

2010-11-23T21:13:00.000-08:00

SPY Read for the Day - November 23, 2010

2010-11-23T05:43:00.001-08:00

Apparently N. Korea faxed S. Korea saying they weren't going to "just sit back" and watch this year.Futures were down as much as -110 points. We ran into a wall at 120/1200. Still have the rising 50MA still under us @ 117.31. The 20MA overhead at 119.36. Gap overhead at 120.19. The gap fills below are118.22 & 116.73. We need to reclaim 120.87/1206. The dollar has been very strong and has resistance @ 79.17 which it has recovered. The next resistance on it is at 79.73. Would be nice to see this move stick and try to push through 120.87 Monday. So if we see further downside #'s to watch are 118.77, 118.22, 117.50,116.73. We haven't lost yesterdays low yet. Maybe we wont. Good luck out there today.

SPX Read for the Week - November 21, 2010

2010-11-21T23:09:00.000-08:00

Mission accomplished, we broke new 52 week highs. We got our 5% pullback to almost the 50MA last week. We have 1206 and 1235 overhead as resistance. The dollar rolled over -1.30. If it see's further upside I'd say 79.17 max for now. But does it really matter? We have seen it start to decouple already. Looking to see 1206 busted. If we cant break it on a low volume holiday shortened week, then that would be a problem. Dont see a big pullback, but we can slip back to 1175 easy. Classic breakdown and retest here. Normally I would be crazy cautious here, but the FED always wins, I see a higher market this week. Good luck out there.

SPY Read for the Day - November 19, 2010

2010-11-19T05:55:00.000-08:00

Futures were down as much as -50 points. We ran into a wall at 120/1200. Still have the rising 50MA still under us @ 116.96. The 20MA overhead at 119.92 just about the gap fill. I am expecting an inside day today with a lot of chop for option ex.. The gap area is 119.35-118.22. We need to reclaim 120.87/1206 or another pullback is coming imo. For today 1195-1200 should give us trouble again. The dollar has been very strong and has support @ 78.51 which it lost last night, but has since recovered. The next resistance on it is at 79.17. Would be nice to see this move stick and try to push through 120.87 Monday. My plan has never changed, long until proven wrong, 1250 SPX tgt by year end. Good luck out there today.

ABD Trade Setup - November 19, 2010

2010-11-18T18:07:00.000-08:00

Fantastic set-up from November 8th, Its ready for more. 7.45 trigger long, next target is 8, not a lot of resistance in the way till 9.10. Stops at 7.10. Nice volume pattern, RSI supports the break-out. Stochastics look great. Low floater lots of shorts. Whats not to like?

SPY Read going forward - November 18, 2010

2010-11-18T09:46:00.000-08:00

Ok here is an update from this mornings read, We got a monster day today for sure, but I am not fooled, What we have is a text book breakdown on the SPX/SPY and today was the retrace. We "should" roll-over or at least pull back here. 1206/120.87 are SUPER resistance area's. Tomorrow is options expiration and anything can happen. But it is better to wish you were in than wish you were out. I am still a super bull for a year end run and see 1250. But I just don't think we will crack this 1206/120.87 area right here right now. I have sold alot into this awesome rally today, and will look to get lighter by day's end. The dollar has been impressive to say the least lately, and today it was weak and tested its support of 78.51 and its 50MA. Until this area breaks you must be careful. Capitol preservation is my #1 position EVERY day. And worst case scenario is we miss some upside, and if we do break out past 1206/120.87 we just buy it. Our playbook is stacked with awesome setups. Just don't be so itchy on the trigger> that is all for now :)

Read from this morning:
Yesterday we had an inside day and had me on the fence as to a huge move up or down, well Futures are up a whopping 95 points. We fell to the first support of 117.50 with the rising 50MA still under us @ 116.77. We need to reclaim 120.87/1206 or another pullback is coming imo. For today 1195-1200 should give us trouble. The dollar has been very strong and has support @ 78.51. The next resistance on it is at 79.17. Would be nice to see this move stick and try to push through 120.87 tomorrow which is option expiration. My plan has never changed, long until proven wrong, 1250 SPX tgt by year end. Good luck out there today.

SPY Read for the Day - November 18, 2010

2010-11-18T05:42:00.000-08:00

Yesterday we had an inside day and had me on the fence as to a huge move up or down, well Futures are up a whopping 95 points. We fell to the first support of 117.50 with the rising 50MA still under us @ 116.77. We need to reclaim 120.87/1206 or another pullback is coming imo. For today 1195-1200 should give us trouble. The dollar has been very strong and has support @ 78.51. The next resistance on it is at 79.17. Would be nice to see this move stick and try to push through 120.87 tomorrow which is option expiration. My plan has never changed, long until proven wrong, 1250 SPX tgt by year end. Good luck out there today.

UA For November 18th

2010-11-17T19:54:00.000-08:00

Monster here, looks ripe for a breakout. Over 54 and we can see an explosion. Nothing in the way on the weekly. Low floater loaded with shorts. Love this here.

ANF Trade setup for Thursday November 18th

2010-11-17T19:31:00.000-08:00

Another screaming retail setup here, Long between 46-47.65 looking for +2 at least here. On the weekly the 200MA is at 48. I think we can see a monster move here. 1 point stops

ANN Trade setup for Thursday November 18th

2010-11-17T19:08:00.000-08:00

Setup for a nice breakout ahead of its earnings report, earnings are out on Fryday morning, had a lot of volume today, 15% short, low floater, RTH looks ok here, I think this has great shot of breaking 24.82 Thursday. Entry between 23.50 and 24.25. First target is 25. Over 25 and this can fly. I will not hold into the report, but will be stalking in Pre-mkt on fryday as well.

SPY Read for the Day - November 17, 2010

2010-11-17T05:55:00.000-08:00

Yesterday by losing the uptrend line, we saw a smack-down on distribution volume. We fell to the first support of 117.50 with the rising 50MA still under us @ 116.60. Walking into a small gap-up today. We are right back into the previous ascending triangle from October. We need to reclaim the 20MA and get back up through the trend line soon, or a bigger rollover is coming imo. The dollar is very strong and needs to lose 79.17 to spark any kind of upwards move in the market. The next resistance on it is at 79.73. One green day in the past 6 or so days, we are overdue for a relief bounce. Fryday is option expiration and I am biased to an upside move into it. Good luck out there today.

CAT Detailed trade

2010-11-14T19:40:00.000-08:00

Back in Sept called this to 80+ from 71, It happened and broke out to all time highs, Kinda flaggin back into the consolidation pattern previous to the breakout. For an entry really depends on the market here. I don't think CAT is done, And honestly think mid 90's can come here, then ultimately 100. Losing the 50MA would be a clear stop. But one can start building here, and add on weakness or strength in the name. IMO using 8% stops on swings from here until year end will work. Stick with the leaders.

SPX Read for the week of November 14th

2010-11-14T17:08:00.000-08:00

Mission accomplished, we broke new 52 week highs. We got our small pullback to the 20MA last week as expected. We have 1206 and 1235 overhead as resistance. The dollar popped a little to our target of 78.51. If it see's further upside I'd say 79.17 max for now. But does it really matter? We have seen it start to decouple already. I honestly do not think we will have a major pullback, maybe another sharp 1-3 day correction at most. To put us near 1175 with 1161 as major support under us. So from here all the way down to 1175 would be a buying op to me. For an end of year run.

SPY Read for the Day - November 12, 2010

2010-11-12T05:50:00.001-08:00

We entered this week looking for the small pullback, we are getting it. We are ending our week with a sizable gap down. In the grand scheme of things the pullback is nothing out of the ordinary. Our channel is 120.87-123.54 with a gap to fill at 119.95. The likely scenario here is that we fill the gap, and put in the low on a potential ascending triangle, and odds favor another leg up in the markets. The 20MA is @ 119.53 if we lost that, I think bear trap, and will buy it. Stick to the best setups, As far as swinging,, the best setups will work in this environment. I see no major "dip" prior to year end.

A look at the Dollar

2010-11-11T19:59:00.000-08:00

IYR Long time since I made a bear call on this.

2010-11-11T19:02:00.001-08:00

Don't think the IYR can handle another weakish day in the markets. In a rising wedge that broke down on Tuesday and lost major support of 56. Wednesday found some will to live, but didn't see 56. Thursday we saw an inside day. Unless we open flat to up tomorrow. I see this possibly flushing some. 50MA is at 54.44 and the recent low was 54.85. First target is +1, Has support at 52.90 if we see real blood for a deeper target. Clear line in sand is breaking 56 for the cover.

SPY Read for the Day - November 10, 2010

2010-11-11T06:00:00.001-08:00

We had two digestion days to start the week, The big news today comes from CSCO which did well with earnings but then issued warnings about the next couple quarters, lets see how the market absorbs this news. Our channel is 120.87-123.54 with a gap to fill at 119.95. Feel as though we just hang out in this channel for a couple days. Worst case for downside would be the 20MA @ 119.11 if we lost that, I think bear trap there. Stick to the best setups, As far as swinging,, the best setups will work in this environment. I see no major "dip" prior to year end.

BPOP Trade setup

2010-11-10T22:22:00.000-08:00

I think its finally ready here, 2.93 trigger, first target 3.10, Over 2.97 a vacuum starts first resistance on the Kirby is at 3.50 then 3.80. Use a tight stop for starters.

RIMM Swing Update W/Video

2010-11-10T19:43:00.000-08:00

I have been stalking this for a long time. Spoke about it a lot on Chart.ly TV last Monday night, This is my dark horse for a run into year end. I am long at 55 Next target is the 200MA @ 59.57. Through that we can see 60.80-67.60 easy here. We have a Vacuum from 56.50 to 67.60. I really believe that this will be trading at 67+ by year end.

TRLG Swing trade setup

2010-11-10T19:08:00.000-08:00

We have traded this one a few times lately. Took another look for @wallstreetbean . For a nice mid term swing I gotta say I like it. Low floater only 23 Million shares heavily shorted @ 24%, Like an entry as close to 19 as possible for a potential gap-fill @ 23.62, First target at 20.50-21.90, then the gap-fill/200MA @ 24.23. RSI 30 bounce, stoch's way oversold, MACD rounding out any strength comes in we should see the cross. Stops at losing the recent low of 18.17, I like losing the August low of 17.50 better though. Awesome risk reward here.

SPY Read for the Day - November 10, 2010

2010-11-10T05:51:00.000-08:00

We have seem two digestion days to start the week, Market is still very healthy. Our channel is 120.87-123.54 with a gap to fill at 119.95. Feel as though we just hang out in this channel for a couple days. Worst case for downside would be the 20MA @ 119.11 if we lost that, I think bear trap there. Stick to the best setups, As far as swinging,, the best setups will work in this environment. I see no major "dip" prior to year end. The dollar is decoupling ever so slightly like last year at this time. Since breaking into the Kirby at SPX 1127 it has been fun, and it is still plugged in. Good luck people!

SPY Read for the Day - November 9, 2010

2010-11-09T05:51:00.000-08:00

I liked the action yesterday, a digestion day, Market is still very healthy. Our channel is 120.87-123.54. Feel as though we just hang out in this channel for a couple days. Stick to the best setups, As far as swinging,, the best setups will work in this environment. I see no major "dip" prior to year end. The dollar is decoupling ever so slightly like last year at this time. Since breaking into the Kirby at SPX 1127 it has been fun, and it is still plugged in. Good luck people!

MHR #1 Setup for Tuesday,

2010-11-08T22:59:00.000-08:00

#1 Setup for tomorrow, Like it right here right now, for a run to 5.50, over 5.50 can fly. Reports on Thursday morning. Just might see a nice short squeeze here. I will be out by the close on Wensday.

A look at the SPX & USD For the week

2010-11-07T23:23:00.001-08:00

Mission accomplished, we broke new 52 week highs. We must relax going into this week. We are overbought finally, not enough to short the market. But just not a whole lot here compelling me to look for many new setups. Lets see what happens first. We have 1206 as support under us, and 1235 overhead as resistance, The dollar is begging to pop a little. I honestly do not think we will have a major pullback, maybe a sharp 1-3 day correction at most. I will be looking for new setups all week. So lets proceed with caution to start the week.

ZION and ABD

2010-11-06T12:09:00.000-07:00

SPY Read for the day

2010-11-02T05:44:00.001-07:00

Walking into another big gap-up. We have 117.50 as support under us and we have a rising 20MA @ 117.59. The Dollar has lost 77.28 as major support. We are over 118.50 which is a more powerful "Vacuum". I am still net long this market by playing high quality setups. Long until proven wrong. This is a hated rally, just the kind I like. Only FOOLS call TOPS! Most of the world buys stocks and not short .... remember that ... This market should be in a tight range, stick with good setups and ride it out. The next "Major" resistance is at 120.87. Good luck today.

SPY Read for the Day - October 29, 2010

2010-10-29T05:42:00.000-07:00

We have 117.50 as support under us and we have a rising 20MA @ 117.16. The Dollar is maybe just starting to show early signs of decoupling like last year near this time. 77.28 is major support. Over 118.50 is a more powerful "Vacuum". I am still net long this market by playing high quality setups. Long until proven wrong. Major support at 115. This market should be in a tight range, stick with good setups and ride it out. The next "Major" resistance is at 120.87. Good luck today.

LVS Trade Review

2010-10-27T18:46:00.000-07:00

My oh! my!!! LVS reported tonight and exploded to over $46.00 a share. I have been screaming LVS for a very long time. And it has pretty much hit my target, and it is looking great to go way higher. I still have my core from $1.50 yes that is $1.50, which more than likely will be with me for life or I give to my kids, but anyway. At 18 just this year I recommended/screamed to all the members to buy this thing and forget about it, look when it hits 46. A nice call to say the least. :-) Here are a couple of charts, and a video from October 4th this year, explaining the "Vacuum". A near picture perfect trading plan, Study this one. GTO

MON Short

2010-10-27T07:16:00.001-07:00

I have started a short here, and plan on swinging it. 59.25 1/2 size. Will add closer to the 200MA at 60.55, which I will use as a stop. Had takeover chatter today, I expect this to roll over.

SPY Read for the Day - October 26, 2010

2010-10-27T05:49:00.000-07:00

Market gaping down here. We are due to see a weak day. We have 117.50 as support under us and we have the 20MA 116.75. The Dollar is maybe just starting to show early signs of decoupling like last year near this time. I am still looking for a bounce to 79.51-80.06. Over 118.50 is a more powerful "Vacuum". We still have many earnings reports to get through and I still feel that we must kinda relax and wait for better setups, no reason to force anything here. Major support at 115. This market should be in a tight range, stick with good setups and ride it out. The next "Major" resistance is at 120.87. Good luck today.

WNR and WMT

2010-10-26T19:35:00.001-07:00

SPY Read for the day

2010-10-26T05:43:00.001-07:00

Market gaping down here. We have 117.50 as support under us and we have the 5MA 117.96. The Dollar is fighting with sup/res of 77.28. I am still looking for a bounce to 79.51-80.06. Which would put pressure on equity's. Over 118.50 is a more powerful "Vacuum". We still have many earnings reports to get through and I still feel that we must be patient in this environment. The 20MA is @ 116.55 major support at 115 and I would consider that a gift. This market should be in a tight range, stick with good setups and ride it out.The next "Major" resistance is at 120.87. Good luck today.

Detailed ATPG update.

2010-10-24T21:49:00.000-07:00

I'm a bull here, have been for a very long time. I have Two positions here, One at 9.90 and another at 11.17. Have many friends/family in this one as well from those levels. I haven't sold 1 share. I believe this sees 20 in time. I really like the slow/light volume pullback here to the 20/200MA. And I think it is time to start buying here again. Sitting dead on both MA's. Really depends on your time frame here. But as a core I would only stop out if it lost the 50MA as a close. I honestly do not think this loses 13 anytime soon. Over 16 is a vacuum. Would add there as well. In any event we will be monitoring this one very closely on site. You cant chase this thing. My big core was up +76% at one time due to extreme patience and letting the trade work.

Detailed trade plan for FFIV

2010-10-24T21:20:00.000-07:00

Normally I would stay away from this for a while as a swing anyway, with Wall St running from cloud recently. But this is reporting on Tuesday night. And looks really setup here, Over 99.20 is a nice vacuum, loaded with shorts, I'm looking to buy a dip tomorrow or buy the break of 99.20 with a target of 103.50 before the report on Tues. I will most likely hit it with weight and sell 1/2-2/3rds before the close for cushion on the overnight hold, and will BAIL 100% prior to the earnings report. Losing the 50MA tomorrow and I will close it out. I may also grab some Nov 105 calls @ 2.60 with the same plan in my baby account.

Weekly Watchlist October 24th

2010-10-24T15:50:00.000-07:00

KEY

2010-10-22T05:02:00.001-07:00

Reported nice #'s this morning, chart looks good, has 4% of the float short. Like it long over 8.60 with a first target of 9. Has good long term support at 8.45. A gap to fill at 8.35. Stops at losing 8.35

SPX Monthly

2010-10-21T17:43:00.000-07:00

This chart continues to point to multi-year bull run, IMHO- but keep time frame in mind